Budget moved to where it earns,
not where it was spent last quarter
Budgets usually get set by inertia. Whatever got spent last quarter gets spent again, with small adjustments. We build a model that shows what each channel earns per dollar, by real outcome rather than platform-reported numbers, and forecast forward from there. The same comparison once found one placement converting 2.7 times cheaper than another.
Why last quarter’s split keeps winning
Most marketing budgets get set by habit: last quarter’s split, nudged slightly based on which channel manager made the most noise in the planning meeting. The platforms do not help either. Each one reports its own performance in the best possible light. A channel that looks efficient from inside its own dashboard can be quietly stealing credit from the channel that did the real work of creating intent.
We found a direct, measurable version of this gap comparing conversation cost across two placements on the same campaign. There was a 2.7 times difference, invisible from either platform’s own reporting, visible only once spend was compared against real CRM outcomes. In a separate expansion across four markets, we found two countries producing zero real purchases despite active ad spend. A model built on real outcomes caught that immediately. A model built on platform metrics alone would have missed it entirely.
Budget that follows last quarter’s split instead of this quarter’s real numbers is, by definition, not optimized.
How we rebuild the forecast
We calculate real cost per outcome by channel: lead, purchase, qualified conversation. We use your CRM or order data rather than each platform’s self-reported conversions, since that is the only fair basis for comparing channels against each other. From that real baseline, we build a forecast for the next quarter under two or three spend scenarios. The reallocation decision gets an actual range of outcomes attached to it, not a single confident guess.
We flag explicitly any channel getting spend without real conversion behind it. That is the zero-purchase-market pattern we have found in past work, and it is often the fastest, least controversial place to cut. Seasonality and any known upcoming change get folded into the forecast rather than ignored. A new competitor, a platform policy shift, a product launch: all of it shifts the plan.
What we need from you
Access to every ad channel you spend on, and your real CRM or order outcome data. The entire value of this exercise depends on comparing spend against real results rather than platform-reported numbers. A short conversation helps too: tell us what you already suspect, a channel you think is overrated, a market that feels soft. That usually points straight at what the model will confirm or correct.
What counts as a result here
The forecast’s accuracy against what actually happens over the following quarter. And the real dollar impact of the reallocation once it ships, checked against the model’s own prediction.
Price and timeline
| Option | Price | What it covers | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Launch or audit | from $1,000 | Real cost-per-outcome model, quarterly forecast, reallocation plan | 1 to 2 weeks |
| Monthly management | from $700 / month | Ongoing reforecasting as channel performance shifts | monthly, no lock-in |
| Full control, handover to your team | from $2,000 | Full model and forecasting framework handed to your team | 2 to 3 weeks |
Where this connects
This builds directly on end-to-end marketing attribution and a unit economics and CAC/LTV model. The full build is on the performance marketing service page. For the automated layer, see ad budget allocation. Real example: the Bali lead-routing project.
Spending across more than one channel and not sure the split still makes sense? Get in touch and bring your current numbers.
FAQ
How much does budget allocation and forecasting cost?
From $1,000 for a real cost-per-outcome model by channel and a forecast with a specific reallocation recommendation, delivered in 1 to 2 weeks.
How often should this be redone?
Quarterly at minimum. Channel costs and conversion rates shift. Do it more often if you are running a new channel or market where the numbers have not stabilized yet.
What budget size is this worth doing for?
Any business spending across two or more channels benefits, since the main value is comparing them against each other on a fair basis. A single-channel budget has less to reallocate but still benefits from an honest forecast.
What do you need from us?
Access to your ad accounts across every channel you run, and your real order or CRM outcome data. The model's value comes entirely from comparing spend against real results, not platform-reported conversions.
How do you report on the forecast?
A specific reallocation recommendation with the model behind it. We also check in against the forecast once a quarter of real spend has passed, so the next one gets sharper.